RUIA final, Session II, Deal 20: A Touch and go game.

Deal No.20, South Dealer, Both Vul

  ♠ Q J
Q 10 6
A Q 9 8 7
♣ 8 7 2
OPEN
ROOM
BIDDING
West...
D Roy
2
3
North..
Choksi
Pass
Pass
East...
Master
2NT
Pass
South..
Gupta
Pass
Pass
♠ K 8
A 9 8 7 4 2
10 5
♣ K 6 4
  ♠ 6 5 4 3 2
K 5 3
K 4 3
♣ A Q
Lead:
Result:
Score
♠Q
Made 4
EW:+170
......
......
......
......
......
......
  ♠ A 10 9 7
J
J 6 2
♣ J 10 9 5 3
CLOSE
ROOM
BIDDING
West...
Venky
Pass
1
North..
Shah
Pass
Pass
East...
Prabha
1
Pass
South..
Ruia
Pass
Pass
      Lead:
Result
Score
♠Q
Made 4
EW:+170
......
......
......
......
......
......

 

A touch and go game. At the given vulnerability, one needs a percentage of about 33% or a little more than that. This game is about 32.5%, so both pairs did well to keep away from it. That the game makes here is just a matter of a favorable lie of cards.

Deal 20: No Exchange

Total : INDIA BLUES: 49 FORMIDABLES: 31

RajeshwarTewari was quick to point out the error in computation of percentages, on Tue, 04/23/2002 - 22:23, he wrote

"I think you are wrong on the percentage of the game. Let me explain:

You need hearts not to break worse than 3-1 which is
 

1. Hearts are 2-2 which is 40% of the times. When hearts are 2-2 you need one of the aces to be onside which is 75% of 40% = 30% chance.
2. Hearts are 3-1 which is 50% of the times. When hearts are 3-1 you need both the aces onside which is 25% of 50% = 12.5% chance.

I you add the two, you get the probability of success as 42.5% (giving some consideration for side ruffs etc this will not be less than 40%) and vulnerable it is indeed a percentage game."

I acknowledged that in my reply on Wed, 04/24/2002 - 02:02

"I agree. I multiplied 40 by 1/2 by mistake. You are right. It is 42.5%, not 32.5. That makes it quite reasonable when vulnerable!"

There was one more comment, by spadedeuce on Wed, 04/24/2002 - 07:05

"This is a beautiful hand that exposes the Indian mindset against what is happening in the rest of the world. The West hand would be an automatic 1 Heart opening anywhere in Europe or America. And even if East wimps out with a 3-trump limit raise, West again has an automatic vulnerable acceptance."

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